BURUNDI/IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Burundi

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Burundi

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Washington, DC – June 17, 2026: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation^[1] with Burundi.

Burundi remains a fragile post-conflict country facing weak institutions, widespread poverty, and spillovers from conflict in neighboring DRC. Economic conditions improved in 2025, with growth reaching 4.2 percent on the back of stronger coffee and gold exports, while inflation fell sharply from 45 percent in April 2025 to 8.6 percent in April 2026.

External vulnerabilities remain elevated: the current account deficit is large, reserves cover only 1.6 months of imports, and the official exchange rate appears significantly overvalued despite a narrower parallel market premium. In January 2026, the authorities adopted a Macroeconomic Stabilization Plan focused on fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary policy, FX reforms, and structural reforms in key sectors. Monetary policy has tightened, with central bank financing of the government frozen, slowing money growth and reducing excess liquidity, though private sector credit has weakened. Fiscal policy has also tightened, supported by spending restraint and improved tax collection, but risks persist from revenue shortfalls, weak investment execution, arrears, and high domestic financing needs. Public debt declined from 53 percent of GDP in 2024 to 42 percent in 2025. While debt is assessed as sustainable, Burundi remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress given ongoing vulnerabilities.

The outlook remains broadly positive despite the war in the Middle East, with growth projected at 3.9 percent in 2026 and averaging 4.3 percent over 2027–31, supported by electrification, agriculture, mining, investment, and structural labor shifts. The near-term impact of the war is expected to be limited, reflecting favorable terms of trade and low global trade integration. Inflation is projected to rise to 14.5 percent in 2026 before easing to 11.5 percent by 2031. External balances are expected to improve, driven by stronger agriculture and mining exports, while FDI related to electrification supports the financial account and raises reserves to 2.8 months of imports by 2031. A tighter fiscal stance is projected to reduce public debt to 32 percent of GDP by 2031. Risks are tilted to the downside in the near term, including fiscal slippages ahead of the 2027 elections and external shocks from weaker export prices or higher fuel and fertilizer costs.

Executive Board Assessment[2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the improved economic conditions and commended the authorities for adopting the Macroeconomic Stabilization Plan. Directors noted the broadly positive economic outlook, although risks are tilted to the downside. In this context, Directors emphasized that sustained fiscal prudence, monetary policy tightening, and Foreign Exchange (FX) reforms are crucial to achieving macroeconomic stabilization and boosting inclusive growth. Engagement with the Fund, including through capacity development, and other partners also remains key.

Directors welcomed the ongoing fiscal consolidation and the discontinuation of monetary financing. While acknowledging the authorities’ ambitious medium‑term fiscal framework, Directors supported a more gradual debt reduction path preserving priority social and development spending. They underscored the importance of stronger domestic revenue mobilization and of reallocating expenditure toward social sectors and infrastructure spending. Enhancing fiscal transparency and SOEs governance and strengthening public financial and debt management remain critical to mitigate fiscal risks.

Directors urged the authorities to tighten the monetary policy stance and actively manage liquidity to strengthen monetary transmission and prepare the ground for FX reforms. In that context, they emphasized the importance of continued, coordinated policy actions to anchor inflation expectations and support disinflation and external adjustment.

Directors concurred that advancing FX reforms remains critical for macroeconomic stability. Noting the favorable environment, they encouraged the authorities to advance FX reforms, through a well‑sequenced and tailored roadmap for a unified and flexible FX regime. Carefully communicating these reforms and addressing their potential social and fiscal impacts would also contribute to a successful transition.

Directors noted that the banking sector appears broadly resilient, while vulnerabilities warrant vigilance. They encouraged the authorities to conduct an asset quality review, strengthen supervision, and advance AML/CFT compliance. Implementation of the Safeguards Assessment recommendations is also important.

Directors highlighted that advancing structural and governance reforms remains essential to achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. In this regard, reforms in agriculture, mining, and electricity sectors will play a critical role. Furthermore, Directors underscored that governance reforms are central to unlocking Burundi’s growth potential and encouraged the authorities to draw on the 2024 Governance Diagnostic Assessment to prepare and implement a governance action plan. Addressing data gaps should also remain a priority.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Burundi will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.

Table 1. Burundi: Selected Economic Indicators, 2024–31

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
	Est.		Projections
	(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
Output and prices
Real GDP	4.1	4.2	3.9	4.2	4.5	4.3	4.3	4.2
GDP deflator	22.2	37.7	15.3	15.6	13.8	12.7	9.8	10.3
CPI (period average)	20.2	34.2	14.5	15.3	13.6	13.2	10.3	11.5
CPI (end of period)	36.4	15.2	19.6	11.9	15.6	11.1	10.7	11.1
Terms of trade ( – = deterioration)	21.5	27.7	5.4	0.8	-0.9	-1.1	-1.3	-1.3
Money and credit
Broad Money (M2)	29.3	19.4	27.7	20.7	21.0	17.2	17.4	15.2
Credit to non-government sector	27.2	23.8	19.0	19.7	18.4	17.1	14.2	14.6
M2/GDP (percent)	43.9	36.5	38.9	39.0	39.7	39.6	40.5	40.6
	(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Central government budget ^1/
Revenue and grants	19.9	16.5	17.2	18.0	18.1	18.5	18.9	19.3
of which: grants	3.9	2.1	2.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0
of which: revenue	16.0	14.4	14.7	15.0	15.1	15.5	15.9	16.3
Expenditure	24.9	22.0	20.6	21.4	21.8	22.1	22.7	23.1
Expense	14.1	12.8	12.2	12.1	12.0	11.9	12.0	12.1
Net acquisition of non-financial assets	10.9	9.2	8.4	9.3	9.7	10.2	10.8	10.9
Primary balance	-3.3	-4.2	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.0	-2.2	-2.1
Overall balance	-5.0	-5.5	-3.4	-3.4	-3.6	-3.6	-3.9	-3.8
Excluding grants	-9.0	-7.6	-5.9	-6.4	-6.6	-6.6	-6.9	-6.8
Public debt
Public gross nominal debt	53.3	41.6	38.4	38.7	36.6	34.6	34.2	32.4
Investment and savings
Investment	19.0	19.0	18.7	20.0	19.4	20.4	20.3	20.6
Savings	10.4	12.3	12.7	14.6	14.2	15.1	15.5	16.0
External sector
Current account balance^2/	-8.6	-6.6	-6.0	-5.4	-5.2	-5.3	-4.8	-4.6
Trade Balance^3/	-19.0	-14.0	-12.2	-11.0	-10.6	-10.5	-10.0	-9.4
Exports	7.1	8.2	8.4	8.7	10.1	10.6	11.9	12.2
Imports	26.1	22.2	20.6	19.7	20.6	21.1	22.0	21.6
Gross international reserves
In millions of US$	191.3	213.9	296.8	298.5	360.8	392.0	478.3	511.7
In months of next year imports	1.5	1.6	2.0	1.9	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.8
Memorandum items:
Official current transfers	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Official capital transfers	3.0	1.9	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0
GDP at current prices
In Burundi Francs (Billions)	13,879	19,917	23,860	28,731	34,169	40,169	45,999	52,848
In US$ (Billions)	4.8	6.8	7.9	8.8	9.1	9.4	9.3	9.7
Nominal GDP per capita, US$	342.7	467.7	533.4	575.5	578	575	556	567
Export volume growth^4/	-29.1	45.3	10.3	13.8	22.8	9.4	13.0	7.0
Population (million)	14.0	14.5	14.9	15.4	15.8	16.3	16.8	17.2
Sources: Burundi authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. ^1/ Fiscal year values (July-June, i.e. 2025 is FY 2024/25). ^2/ Including budget support. ^3/ Goods and services ^4/ Goods, in percent.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, or the Acting Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used this summary document can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

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