ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA/IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda

 

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Washington, DC – May 7, 2026: On May 4, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation^[1] with Antigua and Barbuda. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.^[2]

Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continues. Real GDP grew by an estimated 3 percent in 2025, supported by a pick-up in construction despite slowing tourism activity. Employment has gradually recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation moderated from over 6 percent (year-average) in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025.

Public debt as a share of GDP declined from 101 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68 percent in 2025, aided by an improved fiscal position. However, arrears to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers are significant and gross financing needs are elevated. The fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting both improved tax collection and one-off factors. The 2025 primary balance is estimated at nearly 5 percent of GDP, underpinned by higher tax revenues, stronger inflows under the Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP), restraint in current spending, and a modest increase in capital spending.

Following a sharp narrowing in 2024, the current account deficit in 2025 returned to trend and is estimated around 11½ percent of GDP. The deficit was predominantly financed by foreign direct investment (FDI), and partly by CIP-related inflows. The overall financial system remains stable and liquid.

A steady economic expansion is projected to continue, but risks are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty. Downside risks stem externally from commodity price volatility and a slowdown in major trading partners and, domestically, from capacity constraints weighing on growth. Upside potential could materialize from stronger tourism demand, improved connectivity, and productivity-enhancing reforms.

Executive Board Assessment^[3]

Executive Directors welcomed Antigua and Barbuda’s continued economic expansion, supported by construction activity and resilient tourism, alongside a welcome moderation of inflation. Noting the downside risks from the war in the Middle East and the country’s long-standing debt challenges, Directors called for additional reforms to restore debt sustainability and to strengthen potential growth and climate resilience. Tailored and well-sequenced capacity development by the Fund remains important given the country’s capacity constraints.

Directors welcomed the decline in public debt as a share of GDP. Noting that persistent arrears and elevated gross financing needs are constraining access to longer‑term financing and undermining debt sustainability, Directors urged the authorities to develop and implement a credible and comprehensive strategy for addressing all arrears, broadening financing options, and making space for resilience-building investments. Directors also noted the need to continue strengthening cash and debt management to prevent future arrears.

Directors underscored the need for further revenue mobilization to rebuild fiscal buffers and meet the authorities’ fiscal objectives. To build on recent gains, Directors recommended broadening the tax base, curtailing exemptions, restraining current expenditures, and strengthening the targeting of social assistance. Directors also encouraged the authorities to continue efforts to strengthen fiscal institutions and enhance fiscal oversight, transparency, and reporting of fiscal and public enterprise data.

Directors recognized the regional and national efforts to strengthen financial sector oversight, resilience, and intermediation. For credit unions, they encouraged a shift to risk‑based supervision and efforts to bolster provisioning and capital positions. Continued efforts to strengthen financial deepening, and the AML/CFT and Citizenship by Investment (CIP) frameworks, remain important.

Directors encouraged further efforts to enhance connectivity to support trade, tourism, and competitiveness. They also recommended streamlining port and customs procedures, carefully prioritizing and sequencing infrastructure projects, and addressing skills shortages. Directors also underscored the need for improved data to support evidence-based policymaking.

Antigua and Barbuda: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators Population (2025) 104,993     Adult literacy rate (2015)   99   GDP per capita (US$, 2025) 21,650     Mean years of schooling (2022) 10.5   Life expectancy at birth (years, 2022) 79.2     Human Development Index rank 53   Mortality rate (under 5, per 1,000 live births, 2022) 10   (2024, of 193 economies)                                                             Est. Projections           2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031                         National Income and Prices                       Real GDP 8.2 8.5 3.9 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Nominal GDP 13.5 15.9 10.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Consumer prices (end of period) 1.2 9.2 3.3 5.4 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Consumer prices (period average) 1.6 7.5 5.1 6.2 1.4 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0                                                 Money and Credit                       Net foreign assets 1/ 18.2 3.3 0.2 3.7 6.7 1.5 1.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 Net domestic assets 1/ -4.4 1.3 3.2 0.9 -0.7 4.9 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.2 Broad money (M2) 13.9 4.6 3.3 4.6 5.9 6.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Credit to private sector -4.1 -2.1 7.0 11.6 2.8 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0                         Central Government                       Primary balance -2.3 -0.3 0.5 4.0 4.9 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Overall balance -4.5 -2.9 -1.7 1.6 3.1 -0.6 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9    Total revenue and grants 18.9 18.0 16.7 21.9 22.4 21.6 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6    Of which: Tax revenue 15.4 14.9 14.6 16.8 18.2 17.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2    Total expenditure 23.4 20.8 18.4 20.2 19.3 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5                         External Sector                       Current account balance -17.6 -15.1 -12.9 -7.5 -11.6 -11.8 -11.3 -10.8 -10.4 -9.9 -9.4 Trade balance -29.6 -34.6 -32.4 -29.7 -31.8 -32.3 -31.9 -31.8 -31.6 -31.1 -30.9 Nonfactor service balance 19.5 29.0 28.7 31.3 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.8 29.2    Of which: Gross tourism receipts 30.5 44.6 44.3 47.9 45.0 44.7 45.1 46.1 46.6 46.7 47.2 Overall balance 3.5 -0.1 -2.4 -0.9 2.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 External public sector debt 45.5 39.6 35.2 31.7 31.3 34.2 36.1 37.5 36.8 38.7 38.9                         Savings-Investment Balance -17.6 -15.1 -12.9 -7.5 -11.6 -11.8 -11.3 -10.8 -10.4 -9.9 -9.4 Savings 28.4 25.2 23.8 25.9 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 Investment 46.0 40.2 36.7 33.4 36.1 36.2 35.9 35.2 34.7 34.3 33.8 Memorandum Items                       Net imputed international reserves (US$ million) 324 346 319 318 352 378 399 436 465 496 526   (Months of prospective imports) 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 GDP at market prices (EC$ million) 4,326 5,014 5,546 5,838 6,137 6,439 6,728 7,031 7,347 7,679 8,026 Public debt stock (EC$ million) 2/, 3/ 4,021 4,134 4,134 4,043 4,190 4,280 4,387 4,493 4,575 4,640 4,688 (Percent of GDP) 93.0 82.4 74.5 69.3 68.3 66.5 65.2 63.9 62.3 60.4 58.4 Sources: Country authorities, ECCB, UN Human Development Report, World Bank, and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ NDA and NFA are shown as changes in percent of M2 at beginning of period. 2/ Includes stock of principal and interest arrears, unpaid vouchers, and suppliers’ credits. 3/ Includes central government guarantees of state enterprises’ and statutory bodies’ debt.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the https://www.imf.org/en/countries/atg page.

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

Media contact:

Fernando Puchol fpuchol@IMF.org

(+1) 202.623.7100

 

Download broadcast quality video from IMF Media Center

Follow us:  @IMFSpokesperson, @IMFNews , and Facebook

Sign up for personalized news & updates from IMF Blog, IMF Finance & Development Magazine, IMF Podcasts and more.